Posts by Dr. Boli

ASK DR. BOLI.

Dear Dr. Boli: I have to do a research project on ancient Egypt for Mrs. Hurdle’s tenth-grade social-studies class, and there’s one question I can’t find the answer to. What was the total population of the earth about five thousand years ago, when Egyptian civilization was ramping up? It wasn’t in my history book. —Sincerely, Maximilian F. O. P. Pond IV, Mrs. Hurdle’s Tenth-Grade Social-Studies Class, Point Breeze Preparatory Academy for the Idle Rich.

Dear Sir: Let us see if we can solve this problem mathematically. You have two parents, and your parents each had two parents, and so on back through the generations. Estimating about three generations per century, we have 150 generations back to the time five thousand years ago for which you are looking for a population estimate. Therefore, we simply calculate 2 to the 150th power, and we find that there were about 1,427,­247,­700,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000,­000 of your ancestors alive five thousand years ago. Now, at the present moment there are roughly seven billion people on earth, and each of them has a similar ancestral tree. Therefore, we need only multiply our result by 7,000,000,000, and we shall have a very good estimate of the population of the earth five thousand years ago.

MORE ADVICE FOR TELEPHONE SCAMMERS.

This advice is especially for our friends in India: You may not realize it, but you speak with a recognizable Indian accent. It is therefore a bad mistake to begin the conversation by saying, “Hi, my name is Sean,” or “Bill,” or “Charlie,” or whatever other supposedly American name your supervisor has assigned you for the day. It begins the call with an obvious lie, and your victim expects lies from then on. Every American has met Indian immigrants in America: begin by saying “My name is Sanjay,” or some other name that Americans regard as stereotypically Indian, and you will get off on the right foot. Following this advice will increase your bilking rate considerably; and your supervisor, pleased with the revenue you generate, may raise your salary, or sell you back your firstborn at a reduced rate.

THE CHICKEN AND THE EGG AND THE DIRTY OLD SHIRT.

A site that describes its mission by saying that “we want to aware every one of the latest developments in different scientific disciplines and the pillar concepts on which the basis of science are laid” has at last revealed the answer to the ancient question, “Which came first: the chicken or the egg?”

The site tells us that this is the answer given by science, and therefore definitive. According to researchers who did research, “the protein which makes egg shells is only produced by chickens and not the other way around, so the egg can only exist if it has been created inside a chicken. Therefore, it’s the chicken that came first, not the egg.”

This is an interesting, if badly expressed (what does “the other way around” mean?), piece of reasoning. But it is not science: it is philosophy. How do we know the difference? A philosophical proposition may be defined as “a proposition whose exact contrary may be, and in fact is, held by other sane thinkers”—as opposed to a scientific proposition, to refute which it is necessary to do science.

In this case everything depends on what we mean by egg. At this moment, there is a nest of robins on the windowsill outside. The young hatched from eggs; they were not chicken eggs, but they were eggs. Young turtles hatch from eggs. Young dinosaur ancestors of chickens hatched from eggs. As a fact of nature, the egg existed before the chicken. A hundred million years AP (ante pullum), there were eggs. The egg came first.

This is not complicated philosophy, by the way: this answer was given to Dr. Boli by a ten-year-old child, from whom he borrows it with thanks.

Well, then we mean a chicken egg. But here is a simple argument from evolutionary biology for the contrary proposition, even assuming that definition. Speciation proceeds by degrees, but at some point a mutation occurred that created the first chicken rather than proto-chicken. That mutation was in an embryo in an egg laid by a proto-chicken. Therefore, it was an egg before it was a chicken—quod erat demonstrandum.

Incidentally, that other site’s conclusion seems to be the writer’s extrapolation from the abstract of a study that does not necessarily articulate that conclusion itself. Dr. Boli decided not to pay $59 for the whole study in PDF form, and he suspects that the writer at that other site made a similarly frugal decision.

On the same site, you can read “Wearing The Same Shirt Everyday Is A Sign Of Genius, Psychologist Suggests.” This, again, is presented as science, but again it is philosophy. It is quite possible to argue for the contrary proposition: Wearing the same shirt every day is a sign of being too stupid to operate the washing machine.

ON THIS DAY IN HISTORY.

Convention delegates wait for their turn at the doughnut sign-up list.

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On this day in 1787, delegates from the American states met in a convention in Philadelphia to revise the Articles of Confederation. For all anyone knows they may still be meeting, since no one has heard anything of the Articles of Confederation for the past 226 years.

THE NINE MUSES.

The arts having progressed considerably since the primitive days of ancient Greece, it is time for a truly up-to-date list of Muses.

Alexis, Muse of Supermarket-Checkout Tabloids.

Madison, Muse of Comic-Book Superhero Franchises.

Olivia, Muse of Telephone Scams.

Kaylee, Muse of First-Person Shooter Games.

Makayla, Muse of Tweets and Facebook Statuses.

Brandy, Muse of 24-Hour News Channels.

Addison, Muse of Acoustic Folk Bands in the Parking Lot of Whole Foods.

Riley, Muse of Installation Art.

Kaitlin, Muse of Texting While Driving.